Donald Trump's Big, Brittle Glass Jaw
He's one big punch from a knock out. A line is forming to throw it
Donald Trump has a big, brittle glass jaw as he runs for president in 2024. It is hard to see how it doesn’t shatter into a thousand different pieces before this election is over.
Why Republicans don’t see it, I don’t know. But clearly they don’t.
Iowa first exposed it to the nation on Caucus Night earlier this month.
Donald Trump - who is constantly reported to “own” the Republican Party base like no one ever has, was barely able to win a majority of the most loyal Republican voters in the state on caucus night. A former Republican president. Struggling to gain the support of half of Republican voters attending Republican Party meetings across Iowa.
“Mr. Invincible” - Donald J. Trump - crawled across the finish line on caucus night with Iowa Republicans having been just as likely to vote against him as to vote for him.
A week later, New Hampshire brought down the same hammer a second time. Barely a majority - 54.4 percent of New Hampshire Republicans voting in the Republican Primary voted for Trump. Fully 45.6 voted for somebody else.
Trump won 12 New Hampshire Republican National Convention delegates. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley won 10. That is not a big difference considering many refer to the current Republican Party as the “Trump Party,’ and a party tightly in his grip.
Yet, once again - as in Iowa - in New Hampshire, Republican primary voters were nearly as likely to vote against Trump as to vote for him.
That soft support among Republicans ought to be ringing alarm bells among Republicans when they think about the 2024 General Election not setting off poppingchampagne corks for Donald Trump.
Keep in mind that Trump has never won the popular vote in a general election for president. Never. If he becomes the 2024 Republican nominee for president, he is going to need Republicans to win. It appears his grip on Republicans is - like the premature reports of Mark Twain’s death - greatly exaggerated.
That’s where Trump’s glass jaw starts. Weak support among even Republicans.
But there’s more.
Many of those Republicans he lost in the Iowa caucuses don’t plan on going back to him.
An NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll before the Iowa Caucuses, found that nearly half of Republican Nikki Haley voters among Iowa Republican caucus goers said they will vote to re-elect President Joe Biden if Trump is the Republican nominee.
That’s where Trump’s glass jaw grows more brittle: Not only does he have weak support among Republicans but he also has determined opposition among the Republicans who don’t currently support him. They don’t intend to change.
That ought to give some pause to those pushing the “Trump is an invincible juggernaut” narrative.
A quick summary, then, of the state of Trump’s glass jaw, from what we’ve seen so far:
Iowa and New Hampshire reveal weaknesses in Trump’s support among Republicans that could loom large in a general election.
At least in Iowa, and likely beyond, the Republicans Trump has already lost don’t seem inclined to return to the Trump fold. Ever. They’ve had it with the man.
Democrats appear to be strongly unified behind Joe Biden’s re-election. He won 64 percent of the vote in the Democratic Primary in New Hampshire as a write in candidate. His name wasn’t even on the ballot.
Trump has survived as long as he has in politics because he is an effective bully who has been able to intimidate opponents into silence. It is an open secret on Capitol Hill that many Republicans in the House and Senate despise Trump, and see him as a danger to the country, but are too afraid of the wrath he can unleash on them if they say so.
It goes without saying none of them are likely candidates for a “Profiles in Courage Award.”
The problem for a candidate like Trump, however, is that those who have been bullied will turn on those who bullied them at the first sign of weakness. Kind of like the flying monkeys in the Wizard of Oz movie when Dorthy accidentally “melts” the Wicked Witch of the West.
At the slightest sound of cracking glass coming from Trump’s jaw, the run for the exits will begin, is my guess, at least among the elected officials who despise Trump but say publicly they support him.
That is why Trump supporters on the Republican National Committee prematurely tried to declare in a letter they circulated this past week that Trump was the inevitable and presumptive nominee for 2024, so you know - let’s wrap this up and move on. Enough with this democracy stuff.
They don’t want to take a chance of things skidding any further out of control for Trump. They recognize he is off to a shaky start for the General Election.
The biggest threat to Trump’s glass jaw, however, is his court trial calendar. It’s huge. It’s serious. It’s time consuming, and it’s expensive.
In my view, Trump may even be looking at guilty verdicts and possible prison time before the end of the year for any or all of the more than 90 felony indictments he faces. Not exactly the background music you want for your presidential campaign.
Frankly, I don’t know how a candidate starts out with the weaknesses cited above, and goes on to even have time, money or focus to run for president - much less win election as president - given the trial calendar that lies ahead for Trump. All “problems” of his own making, by the way.
Here’s a quick look at what’s on his calendar in the weeks and months ahead. Any one of these, in any number of different ways, could be the one that delivers the punch that shatters Trump’s brittle glass jaw:
Federal Classified Documents Case: Trump faces 41 felony indictments re: mishandling of classified documents; obstructing justice; making false statements
Georgia Election Fraud Case: 13 felony indictments for attempting to fraudulently over turn the results of the 2020 Georgia presidential election. The charges include racketeering, solicitation of violation of an oath by a public officer, conspiracy to commit forgery in the first degree, submitting false statements and writings, filing false documents, etc.
New York Civil Fraud Case: This is a civil case, not a criminal case, but it could cost Trump his ability to conduct business in New York, and as much as $370 million dollars. It alleges that Trump fraudulently falsified business records in order to get more favorable terms for bank loans and insurance policies.
Federal 2020 Election Case: 4 felony indictments alleging that after the 2020 election and leading up to the January 6 attack on Congress, Trump committed a wide ranging criminal conpiracy to overturn the 2020 election.
Manhattan Hush Money: 34 felony indictments re: hush money paid with 2016 campaign funds to an adult film star to keep sexual encounters secret before the 2016 presidential election. The case alleges that Trump falsified business records to conceal the payments to benefit his election campaign.
By the way, the above list does not include anything from the E. Jean Carroll cases which have so far cost Trump $88.3 million in liability for sexual abuse and defamation. That amount gives you a reminder of the magnitude of the cases and alleged wrong doing we’re talking about here. Those trials are over now, but who knows - there could be more given Trump’s inability to stop defaming her.
Something else Republicans should see coming, but apparently don’t is that Trump has avoided Republican debates so far out of fear he’d be asked questions about the many felonies he now faces. Do Republicans think that strategy is going to change in the General Election?
I don’t.
Trump will be a no show again. Voters will hear from him mostly about his own concerns, not their concerns. That’s no way to win an election. Voters - especially in a General Election expect to hear candidates talk about the lives and the problems voters face, not rants about the grievances and insecurities of a candidate. Trump is generally incapable of talking about anyone other than himself, but debates would have helped nudge him out of that ditch.
Instead, Trump will be sitting in court rooms and continuing to dodge debates during this election year. Great way to run for president, isn’t it?
Trump may in fact be on his way to becoming the 2024 Republican presidential nominee. If he is, it is because Republicans, as a party, cowardly failed to stop him, even though many of them know he is utterly unfit to be President.
But that doesn’t mean he’s a lock for a return to the White House by a long shot.
Trump - with his big, brittle glass jaw - will be the weakest presidential nominee Republicans have ever fielded. Also the most risky for his fellow Republicans who will also be trying to get elected to office on the Republican ticket.
What is really astounding, though, is that Republicans who should know better than to let him ever get close to the White House again, are - in fact - allowing him to stroll unencumbered to the Republican party’s presidential nomination in 2024.
Never has a more flawed and weak candidate presented himself for a party’s presidential nomination.
Never has a candidate so threatened democracy in America.
Never has a party been so willing to accept such a flawed and dangerous candidate as its nominee.
If Trump’s glass jaw takes him down in November, which seems likely, he will also take a lot of US House and Senate Republican candidates to defeat with him. It will be hard to argue that they didn’t deserve that defeat. They could have stopped Trump.
They did nothing.
They needed to act to help save American democracy which Trump threatens.
Instead they chose to do and say nothing.
Wow, this is one of the clearest (and most hopeful, actually) summaries I have read about the current situation in which we find ourselves that ultimately will define democracy in America.
Thank you, Barry. It sill amazes me that educated people can be aware of this man's atrocious behavior and still vote for him, even though they despise him and know he is unfit for office. As for the cowards in Congress being taken down with him in the general - your lips to God's ears.