What Governor Reynolds Doesn't Know About Running for Vice President

No, she will not be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President

It is obvious that Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds wants to be picked as the Vice Presidential running mate for whoever wins the 2024 Republican presidential nomination - even if it is the twice impeached, and by then likely felon Donald Trump.

You read it here first, folks: It. Is. Not. Going. To. Happen.

To quote the guard at the Land of Oz Emerald City’s entry gate, “Not no way! Not no how!”

You can’t blame her for having big dreams, though, even if those dreams - once examined - prove to be absurd. Especially with her history - she’s had a pretty easy skate to the top in Iowa politics. So why not?

In 2010, Terry Branstad selected her to be his Lt. Governor running mate. It was a nomination gifted to her, not one she spent months campaigning to win. Her general election victory in November was really Branstad’s victory. She rode Branstad’s coat tails into that office. The Governor and Lt. Governor run as a ticket in Iowa, and most people cast their ballot for or against the Governor, not the Lt. Governor candidate.

When Branstad, resigned - something he promised he wouldn’t do - to fly off to China as the Trump appointed U.S. Ambassador that we essentially never heard from again as US-China relations fell apart during Trump’s four years - Reynolds moved into the Governor’s office. Again, she did so without having to campaign directly for the office. The first time she actually ran for Governor, she did so as an incumbent.

So why shouldn’t she think gliding onto her party’s national ticket would be any more difficult? Especially as the Governor of the state where the road to the Republican nomination for president begins and through which every Republican candidate for president must pass.

I’ve worked at senior levels in two presidential campaigns. Granted, that experience came working with Democrats, but I have certainly watched closely what Republicans have been doing over the years. I am also very familiar with the calculations that are built into these selections.

Here’s where Reynolds’ dream starts to fall apart,.

We can begin with the fact that she is the Governor of Iowa. Not that there is anything wrong with that. It’s a substantial office. But as far as a “hatchery” for future vice presidents, especially these days, it just isn’t much of an asset.

1. Reynolds does nothing to pick up any electoral votes Republicans won’t likely win in 2024 anyway. Let’s start with the basics. Adding the Governor of bright, ruby red Iowa - a state likely to vote for the Republican nominee anyway in 2024 - to the Republican ticket adds nothing to the math needed to win in the Electoral College.

2. Iowa has only 6 electoral votes. Even if Iowa were likely to be competitive in 2024, other states that would also be competitive - and who also have possible Veep nominees - would deliver more Electoral College votes than Iowa’s tiny total of six. Those are the states where the 2024 nominee will be looking, not Iowa.

3. Reynold’s would not significantly expand the party’s geographic appeal. Most Republican stronghold states are largely rural. Adding a vice presidential nominee from a rural state does nothing to expand that appeal to more urban states. If Republicans feel a need to offset a presidential nominee from an urban state, with a vice presidential nominee from a rural state, again, there are other rural states, with their own potential nominees, which offer more Electoral College punch than Iowa.

4. Reynolds would not expand the party’s appeal ideologically. She has mimicked most bad ideas of national Republicans angling to run for president. For example, after having copied every leadership mis-step President Trump made in handling the pandemic, there’s a reason they call her “Covid Kim” in Iowa.

   It is hard to see how she would bring any ideological appeal to the ticket that goes beyond the hard core, partisan, “red meat” base. If that’s her target - and it could be as Republicans increasing narrow their appeal to their hard core base only - well, she’s got lots of competition.

   This is one area where Reynolds could actually strengthen her chances if she chooses to do so, which she likely won’t.

   Usually, people who become party leaders and win a place on the national ticket do so by actually leading. Can you name an original idea or approach to actual problem solving (as opposed to making problems worse) that she has advanced? I didn’t think so.

   There is a reason you don’t see any Elvis impersonators accepting awards at the Grammies or being inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. Originality counts. She has displayed very little of it.

   It would be easy to differentiate herself. All Reynolds has to do is simply stand up to the Republican crazies who are running the Iowa Legislature and show some actual leadership. For example, instead of whining that she “doesn’t like” signing laws that bully vulnerable school kids, she could veto those dangerous, health threatening, state sponsored-bullying bills instead of signing them and turning them into state law.

   She has shown little propensity to do that.

   In addition, many of the other bad ideas floating around the statehouse are ones she’s put forward after filching them from other states. So don’t look for any differentiating leadership from her any time soon.

   Perhaps the biggest problem Governor Reynolds will face, however, is that by the time the Iowa Caucuses are over, national candidates are pretty much done with Iowa. They have kowtowed to the state’s political leaders, spoken at an endless series of fundraisers for Iowa candidates at state, congressional, legislative district and county levels, raised money for party organizations at all those levels as well - all of which they are happy to do, I don’t mean to suggest otherwise - but when you get to the end of that two year marathon, national candidates pretty much have developed an “I gave at the office” attitude toward Iowa.

   Especially when the state is unlikely to be in the competitive mix in November.

   They have lots of friends, real friends, in the state.

   But they have done enough for their fellow partisans in Iowa and it’s time to focus elsewhere now. The last thing they want to do at that point, is to give the second most valuable prize the party has to offer to Iowa.

   On top of everything else.

   For six electoral votes.

   Unless there is a darned good reason.

   Call it Iowa fatigue.

   There is no “darned good reason” to do so for Reynolds.

   The Governor may get some flattering public nods over the next several months, suggesting that she’s a possibility for a vice presidential selection by any or all of the Republican candidates moving through the state between now and next year. She will certainly continue to make sure Republican candidates get multiple chances to get to know her well as they come through the state.

   Those flattering public nods will be more of a political courtesy, more “vanity mentions,” than any actual real consideration.

   So don’t bet the farm on Reynolds making it on to anybody’s ticket as number two next year.

   Because it’s not going to happen.

   Not no way. Not no how.

   Governor Reynold’s time and effort will be better spent over the coming year working to become a better Governor for Iowa, rather than chasing a pipe dream that isn’t going to happen, and the pursuit of which will cause her - as it already has on several fronts - to be a worse Governor of Iowa.

Barry Piatt’s weekly column is part of the Iowa Writer’s Collaborative, which links some of Iowa’s best writers and thinkers directly with readers. It is a reader supported effort, so, please check out the columns listed below and consider becoming a free or paid subscriber to any or all of them.

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